Saturday, August 27, 2011

its the cosmic rays, stupid: CLOUDs break some warmist dams

Plasma from the sun

From "Plasma is by far the most common form of matter. Plasma in the stars and in the tenuous space between them makes up over 99% of the visible universe and perhaps most of that which is not visible."

"Plasma temperatures and densities range from relatively cool and tenuous (like aurora) to very hot and dense (like the central core of a star)."

"Plasma consists of a collection of free moving electrons and ions - atoms that have lost electrons."

Artist sketch of dynamic sun, solar wind and earth's space plasma environment

the earth's magnetosphere protects it

From "A magnetosphere is that area of space, around a planet, that is controlled by the planet's magnetic field. The shape of the Earth's magnetosphere is the direct result of being blasted by solar wind. It prevents most of the particles from the Sun, carried in the solar wind, from hitting the Earth. The Sun and other planets have magnetospheres, but the Earth has the strongest one of all the rocky planets. The Earth's magnetosphere is a highly dynamic structure that responds dramatically to solar variations. Life on Earth developed and is sustained under the protection of this variable magnetosphere."

Aurora Borialis from space - pic from the Technonaut
The Aurora Borialis "actually the result of collisions between gaseous particles in the Earth's atmosphere with charged particles released from the sun's atmosphere. Variations in colour are due to the type of gas particles that are colliding. The most common auroral color, a pale yellowish-green, is produced by oxygen molecules located about 60 miles above the earth. Rare, all-red auroras are produced by high-altitude oxygen, at heights of up to 200 miles. Nitrogen produces blue or purplish-red aurora.

The connection between the Northern Lights and sunspot activity has been suspected since about 1880. "

From Absolute Astronomy "The flux (flow rate) of cosmic rays incident on the Earth’s upper atmosphere is modulated (varied) by two processes; the Sun’s solar wind and the Earth's magnetic field. The Solar wind is expanding magnetized plasma generated by the Sun, which has the effect of decelerating the incoming particles, as well as excluding some of the particles with energies below about 1 GeV. The amount of solar wind is not constant due to changes in solar activity, for instance over its regular eleven-year cycle. Hence the level of modulation varies in anticorrelation with solar activity. Also the Earth's magnetic field deflects some of the cosmic rays, giving rise to the observation that the intensity of cosmic radiation is dependent on latitude, longitude, and azimuth angle. The cosmic flux varies from eastern and western directions due to the polarity of the Earth's geomagnetic field and the positive charge dominance in primary cosmic rays. (This is called the "east-west effect"). The cosmic-ray intensity at the Equator is lower than at the poles as the geomagnetic cutoff value is greatest at the equator. This is because charged particles tend to move in the direction of field lines and not across them, so that they are concentrated in the polar regions (where field lines are closest together). This is the reason the auroras occur at the poles, since the field lines curve down towards the Earth’s surface there. Finally, the longitude dependence arises from the fact that the geomagnetic dipole axis is not parallel to the Earth's rotation axis."

Svenmarks Cosmic Ray Interaction Diagram

From Watts Up With That "Cosmic rays are energetic particles that originate in space and our sun and collide with particles as they zip through our atmosphere. While they come from all directions in space, and the origination of many of these cosmic rays is unknown, they has recently been shown that a larger percentage emanate from specific deep space sources. Cosmic rays were originally discovered because of the ionization they produce in our atmosphere."

cosmic rays... an interpretation

So what is all this about? New scientific results is what this is all about.  The CERN Experiment Confirms Cosmic Rays Influence Cloud Seeds.  

From WUWT "The worldwide network neutron monitors that have since been established gather data that have shown there is a correlation between periodic solar activity and the earthly neutron count."

"Ground-based neutron monitors detect variations in the approximately 500 Mev to 20 GeV portion of the primary cosmic ray spectrum."

"The primary cosmic ray particles interact with the atmosphere and generate secondaries, some of which will reach the surface of the Earth."

So what does the CERN study reveal?  From WUWT "it appears that a non-visible light irradiance effect on Earth’s cloud seeds has been confirmed. The way it is posited to work is that the effect of cosmic rays (modulated by the sun’s magnetic variations which either allow more or deflect more cosmic rays) creates cloud condensation nuclei in the Earth’s atmosphere. With more condensation nuclei, more clouds form and vice-versa."

What does all this mean?  It means the global warmists’ dam breaks.

Nigel Calder explains in CERN experiment confirms cosmic ray action "Long-anticipated results of the CLOUD experiment at CERN in Geneva appear in tomorrow’s issue of the journal Nature (25 August). The Director General of CERN stirred controversy last month, by saying that the CLOUD team’s report should be politically correct about climate change. The implication was that they should on no account endorse the Danish heresy – Henrik Svensmark’s hypothesis that most of the global warming of the 20th Century can be explained by the reduction in cosmic rays due to livelier solar activity, resulting in less low cloud cover and warmer surface temperatures."

"Jasper Kirkby of CERN and his 62 co-authors, from 17 institutes in Europe and the USA, announce big effects of pions from an accelerator, which simulate the cosmic rays and ionize the air in the experimental chamber. The pions strongly promote the formation of clusters of sulphuric acid and water molecules – aerosols of the kind that may grow into cloud condensation nuclei on which cloud droplets form. What’s more, there’s a very important clarification of the chemistry involved."

“It’s the Sun, stupid!” The story isn’t really about a bunch of naughty Danish physicists. They are just spokesmen for the most luminous agent of climate change. As the Sun was what the warmists really wanted to tame with their dam, they couldn’t do it. And coming to the Danes’ aid, by briefly blasting away many cosmic rays with great puffs of gas, the Sun enabled the team to trace in detail the consequent reduction in cloud seeding and liquid water in clouds.

By the way, that research also disposes of a morsel of doubt in the new CLOUD paper, about whether the small specks made by cosmic rays really grow sufficiently to seed cloud droplets.

As knowledge accumulated behind their dam and threatened to overtop it, the warmists had one last course to lay. Paradoxically it was CLOUD. Long delays with this experiment to explore the microchemical mechanism of the Svensmark effect became the chief excuse for deferring any re-evaluation of the Sun’s role in climate change. When the microchemical mechanism was revealed prematurely by the SKY experiment in Copenhagen and published in 2006, the warmists said, “No particle accelerator? That won’t do! Wait for CLOUD.”

When the experiment in Aarhus confirmed the mechanism using a particle accelerator they said, “Oh that’s just the Danes again! Wait for CLOUD."

Well they’ve waited and their dam has failed them." 

LET THE WATER OF TRUTH FLOW ... & destroy the AGW warmist religion of lies!

The Western Free Press says AGW is under attack by cosmic rays - a simple explanation: "Solar activity modulates the incidence of Cosmic Rays on Earth, and the Cosmic Rays affect cloud formation by providing more condensation nuclei on which water droplets grow. More clouds mean more reflected sunlight and a cooler earth." 

Possible cosmic ray aerosol link explained - image from Physics World
Bishop Hill points out Physics World acknowledges "Henrik Svensmark of the National Space Institute in Copenhagen and colleagues hypothesize that the ions that are formed as (charged) cosmic rays pass through the atmosphere act as a kind of glue that makes it easier for molecules to stick together and form aerosols. This hypothesis has proved controversial* because it suggests a role for solar variation, as well as human emissions of greenhouse gases, in climate change – the idea being that the stronger the Sun's magnetic field, the more cosmic rays are deflected away from the Earth, resulting in the formation of fewer clouds and so a warmer Earth, with a weaker solar magnetism having the opposite effect."   (*why is that controversial?  ASK AL GORACLE...)

CERN says 'Climate models will need to be substantially revised'.  Well who is CERN anyway?  

"CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research, is one of the world’s largest and most respected centres for scientific research. Its business is fundamental physics, finding out what the Universe is made of and how it works. At CERN, the world’s largest and most complex scientific instruments are used to study the basic constituents of matter — the fundamental particles. By studying what happens when these particles collide, physicists learn about the laws of Nature.

The instruments used at CERN are particle accelerators and detectors. Accelerators boost beams of particles to high energies before they are made to collide with each other or with stationary targets. Detectors observe and record the results of these collisions.

Founded in 1954, the CERN Laboratory sits astride the Franco–Swiss border near Geneva. It was one of Europe’s first joint ventures and now has 20 Member States."

From CERN's press release Geneva, 25 August 2011 the CLOUD experiment provides unprecedented insight into cloud formation "In a paper published in the journal Nature today, the CLOUD1 experiment at CERN2 has reported its first results. The CLOUD experiment has been designed to study the effect of cosmic rays on the formation of atmospheric aerosols - tiny liquid or solid particles suspended in the atmosphere - under controlled laboratory conditions. Atmospheric aerosols are thought to be responsible for a large fraction of the seeds that form cloud droplets. Understanding the process of aerosol formation is therefore important for understanding the climate.

The CLOUD results show that trace vapours assumed until now to account for aerosol formation in the lower atmosphere can explain only a tiny fraction of the observed atmospheric aerosol production. The results also show that ionisation from cosmic rays significantly enhances aerosol formation. Precise measurements such as these are important in achieving a quantitative understanding of cloud formation, and will contribute to a better assessment of the effects of clouds in climate models."

With real scientific results, I agree with the Western Free Press who point out
"...many scientists have been saying that there is more evidence for the sun’s role in climate change than for humans’ role." .
..  I agree and say emphatically - DUH!


  1. They are so heavily invested in the AGW fraud (just look at how completely unhinged algore has appeared in recent pronouncements), I seriously doubt they walk away quietly from the AGW crap.

    Since they could not impose statist/totalitarian control politically or militarily, the goal all along was to effectively impose one world government to save humanity from itself through multi-lateral organizations dedicated to regulating climate (which itself was intended to hamper economic activity in the U.S. with the hope that developing countries could "catch up".) It's all about radical egalitarianism -- equality and fairness trumps all.

    The warmists are control freak fascists. They should be despised by anybody who cares about individual liberty and what little remains of our once free society.

    Thanks for the great post. I haven't had a chance to check in for a while or as often as I would like. I hope the new dog is working out well. Keep up the good work.

    -- SCOTT

  2. hi Scott, thanks for commenting... I completely agree about warmists being control freak facists... good description!

    hope you're enjoying the last few weeks of summer...

    cheers from early early spring in NZ